"The Momentum Maker Mastermind: Empower Your Business with the Collective Wisdom of Legitimate Multi-Millionaire Business Owners"
Join Kirk on Friday, October 13th (2023.10.13) @ 9:45 AM PST (12:45 PM EST)
We offer the most competitive rates and excellent service beyond closing. Guaranteed! PRO.
We offer guidance to real estate professionals, tax professionals, lawyers, and CPA's.
Are you ready to grow your business to
the next level and beyond. Kirk has helped hundreds of businesses and
can help you get there faster.
Our proven track record in solid investments has help hundreds and could help you too. Ask us how!
Kirk is the past President of the Universal City/North Hollywood Chamber of Commerce as well as a former co-chair of the ALFN Commercial Practices Committee. He is active as a speaker and moderator of several trade organizations including the CA Mortgage Bankers Association (CMBA), Mortgage Banking Association (MBA), and the Attorney Legal Financial Network (ALFN). Mr. Jaffe is quoted or has been a guest of several media outlets including: KABC790 Talk Radio, NBC and the Los Angeles Daily News to name a few.
Let Us Know What You Need!
We offer Custom Tailored mortgages for Home or Business!
Grow your business FAST with our Business Consulting Services!
INVESTMENT CONSULTING - REAL ESTATE ASSETS
Our win/win approach to investing has helped hundreds. FIND OUT MORE!
REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS
If you are a real estate professional and are ready to work with a partner with years of experience, you're in the right place.
CPAS, ATTORNEYS, AND INSURANCE PROFESSIONALS
If you have questions about the potential legal implications of real estate transactions for your clients, Kirk Jaffe has the answers!
“What a GREAT guy Kirk is! I highly recommend him and his services all the time and for my own home loan needs. Why would I say that as a Broker myself? Well as a Buyer and a Broker I cannot have my hand into many aspects of the transaction, so I trust Kirk with my financing needs he has yet to let me down! "
"Kirk is my go-to lender. He has worked many “miracle situations” and provides top notch service from start to finish...."
"I have known Kirk Jaffe for many years. Kirk has a stellar reputation. You can see his reviews by going to www.mycity.com/profile/kirk-jaffe."
"When I need any information regarding the Real Estate Financing space for a client, my first call is to Kirk Jaffe. He is knowledgeable, professional, and experienced. He stays on top of cases and follows up with clients. He is a true asset to my business."
"Kirk works hard and well day and night, a kind person and gets it done fast!"
"Kirk did a fabulous job. He walked me thru the process and it was incredibly easy compared to other mortgages I've done. Thanks to Kirk, my house closed in under 21 days, and he got me a great interest rate."
Inflation Uncertainty Keeping Rates in Consolidation Mode
Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster's definitions of the word "consolidate," and you'll find "to form together into a compact mass." Financial markets appropriated that definition long ago and have been using it to refer to the condensed mass of prices, yields, or whatever else is being measured on a chart.
Speaking of charts, consolidation has a tell-tale pattern of lower highs and higher lows that form a sort of triangle or pennant (incidentally, market participants also use those terms more or less interchangeably).
Regardless of the label, the underlying phenomenon is one of indecision or anticipation of a big move that has a chance to be higher or lower.
Consolidation is everywhere in the market these days. If we zoom way out and simply consider the general flow of events, this makes good sense. As inflation surged at the fastest pace in decades, the Fed tightened monetary policy at a similarly fast pace. Inflation can also act as a natural brake on economic activity as consumer buying power declines.
At some point, the inflationary surge levels off and we wait for price growth to moderate back toward more sustainable levels. The presence of consolidation makes sense because we're smack dab in the middle of finding out whether inflation has leveled off as a sign that it's about to go lower, or simply to take a breath before remaining stubbornly high. Consolidation patterns are equally likely to be seen for both reasons.
This week's focal point for economic data and the broader consolidation theme was Wednesday's release of April's Consumer Price Index (CPI). More than any other inflation report, CPI has had the power to push rates rapidly higher or lower.
CPI was right in line with expectations this time around, which doesn't really help clear up much indecision. The monthly change of 0.4% at the core level (the one that gets the most attention from the Fed and financial markets) is right in the middle of consolidation pattern. And the annual number remains fairly flat after coming off the higher levels seen at the end of 2022.
There were some subtleties underneath the headlines that were helpful for rates. Specifically, there was a nice little drop in core services inflation excluding housing. This is a hot button for the Fed, as it captures a vast majority of the inflation that has been the most problematic. Removing housing from the equation allows the market to see a shift earlier than it otherwise might (because the housing components don't move as much or as quickly).
All that to say: interest rates moved lower on Wednesday despite CPI coming in flat. The following day, Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI) helped the move continue, although bank sector drama was also driving investors into US Treasuries. Yields bounced on Friday after the Consumer Sentiment survey showed 5-year inflation expectations at their highest level since 2011.
The chart of 10yr Treasury yields above is a good proxy for interest rate momentum throughout the week. It may not look like a good example of consolidation on such a short time scale, but if we zoom out, things change.
And what would a good proxy for rate momentum be if its sideways vibes didn't translate to the mortgage market?
In fact, as of Friday, mortgage rates clocked their flattest calendar month since May 9th through June 9th, 2022.
The point of all this consolidation observation is simply to convey that the market is at a crossroads--albeit with a very long stop light--that will inform the next big move for rates and the housing market.
If inflation moves lower out of its consolidation pattern, rates would almost certainly do the same, thus allowing homeowners some breathing room to shop for new homes without worrying about sacrificing their ultra low existing rate.
In the week ahead, we'll get to see how that process is going via the Existing Home Sales data on Thursday. Two days prior, the Retail Sales report will provide an update on consumer spending. In general, lower sales suggest downward pressure on inflation, but economists expect a +0.7% increase this time around compared to a 0.6% decrease in the last report.